Just a quick point about the WSJ/NBC poll that is blowing up Twitter right now

The poll's full results are here.

There is no sugar coating it- this is an ugly poll for the GOP, and I have no reason to doubt it. If anything I am about to write comes across as implying that it isn't quite bad, then that is a failure in my communication skills.

That out of the way, let me point out one thing.

Q10, which is the 'choose one, government should do more to help people' versus 'government is doing too much' showed a net 8 point swing towards the 'do more' side since the last time it was asked by these pollsters, back in June.

Where views of the parties swing depending on the political winds, underlying core beliefs tend to be more stable. This particular change suggests to me that the movement here was not so much a shift in the opinion of the electorate towards bigger government, but rather a shift in the enthusiasm of those called.

Stated differently, and perhaps more clearly (or perhaps not), that question makes me wonder if most of the movement came from adherents to a 'less government' philosophy have had their enthusiasm tempered, or from adherents to a 'more government' one being more enthused, or both. I am skeptical that ~4% of the adult population in June thought "small government is the bees knees" but now think "pump it up until you can feel it."

That is not to say it does not spell big trouble for the GOP, as I started off this post with. Having people who agree with your overarching political philosophy demotivated while those holding the opposite one are energized is a recipe for electoral slaughter. However, it is somewhat easier to rally your troops, or to have the other side lose momentum, than it is to convince a meaningful slice of the electorate that their entire view of the role of government has been wrong.

It's not a silver lining, but it is something. And it may be all Republicans can hope for, if other polls come out soon showing the same basic numbers, as I suspect will be the case.

And keep in mind that "somewhat easier" does not mean "easy."

Edited 10/12 to add: The same link above has the results of the same question going back more than a half a decade. You can see that there were instances where this measure swung significantly, and even stayed with the swing for a considerable amount of time. At first blush, that would seem to conflict with my assertion that "views of the parties swing depending on the political winds, underlying core beliefs tend to be more stable."

The word "tend" in that sentence is very important. Context matters. When that big swing occurred and showed some stickiness or duration, it was precipitated by, and during, the financial crisis that brought down so many banks and nearly the entire economy. It stands to reason that the answer saying to leave businesses (including financial institutions) alone would take a hit, and the answer saying to help people more would see increased support. The contextual circumstances hit right to the core of the question, which is not the case right now (at least, to my eyes).

Your mileage may vary. However, if one believes that the shutdown does lend itself to shifting views on this question, note that when Democrats started saying that the economy was recovering, the results of this question shifted back to where they had been prior.