Here's some fun numbers.
137 PPP polls in the RCP averages across all SEN/GOV races
in 2014, excluding PPP's 2-way polls when it also published a 3-way poll in the
same race.
Polls In the Field After September 1:
51 polls. 10 underestimated the Democrat (D-), 41
underestimated the Republican (R-). So, 80% underestimated the R.
In 13 races won by Ds: 6 D-, 7 R-, average error 1.9 points
in the 2-party vote.
In 38 races won by Rs (counting LA-SEN): 4 D-, 34 R-,
average error 3.1 points in the 2-party vote.
That's not small - an error of 3 points can mean you had the
D up 52-48 and the D lost 51-49.
Polls In the Field May-August:
29 polls. 4 D-, 25 R- 86% underestimated the R.
In 8 races won by Ds: 4 D-, 4 R-, average error 3.4 points
in the 2-party vote.
In 21 races won by Rs: 0 D-, 21 R-, average error 4.8 points
in the 2-party vote.
Polls In the Field Between 2012 and April 2014:
57 polls. 12 D-, 45 R- 79% underestimated the R.
In 16 races won by Ds: 4 D-, 12 R-, average error 4.7 points
in the 2-party vote.
In 21 races won by Rs: 8 D-, 33 R-, average error 5.1 points
in the 2-party vote.
Overall, PPP conducted 100 polls of races that Republicans
ended up winning. 12 out of 100 fell on the side of underestimating the
Democrat. 88 out of 100 fell on the side of underestimating the
Republican. PPP polled NC-SEN seven times and showed Hagan with a lead
every time. It polled FL-GOV eight times and showed two ties and six
Crist leads, three of them by double digits. In five KS-GOV polls and
four KS-SEN polls, it had Orman and Davis leading every time. Its only
OH-GOV poll in the averages had FitzGerald winning.
And that's before you look at the races they chose to poll.
-PPP polled McConnell's race 3 times in 2012-13, when a
small Mitch lead would be bad news for Mitch. It polled the race once in
August, found him up 5, and didn't poll it again until it was painting the tape
the last week of the race, when it had Mitch up 8 (still well under his final
margin).
-PPP polled the Maine Governor's race three times in 2013,
finding Michaud up twice, but never polled it once in 2014. It showed two
double-digit Martha Coakley leads in 2013, then came back and only polled
MA-GOV the last week when Baker was putting it away.
-PPP polled Thad Cochran's race twice, the last time in July
2014 when it had him leading 41-26.
-PPP polled TX-GOV four times but stopped after April.
-Its last poll in WI-GOV was also in April.
-PPP didn't poll the Iowa, Alaska, Arkansas or Louisiana
Senate races in October, and didn't have a single poll in the field in any race
between October 20-29.
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