Udall Being Propped Up Completely By The Under 30s

This morning, Quinnipiac releases the second half of their writeup on their recent polling of Colorado. Topline numbers for the Senate race: Udall 45, Gardner 44.

The numbers are even worse than that suggests for Udall.

• His lead is entirely due to those under the age of 30. He captures that cohort by 31 points!
• That age cohort, though, really knows absolutely nothing about Gardner. 72% of then haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. Only 12% view him unfavorably.
• Udall trails among every other age cohort, with his biggest deficit coming among seniors (who happen to be the most reliable in terms of turning out). Gardner takes them by 8 points.
• Udall's approval rating among age cohorts: 39% for those between 30-49 as well as those 65+. On the 50-64%, it's 42%. The under 29s? 50%.
• On question after question, that age cohort has very high "DK/NA" or "Haven't heard enough" responses; this is a sign of a lack of engagement which to me further suggests potentially weak turnout. Naturally, that is "if the election happened today."
• In the Presidential horserace questions, Clinton loses to Paul by 5 points, with the under 30s splitting evenly at 43%. I read this in conjunction with what I mention above to mean that the under 30s are not opposed to a Republican. They just don't want what I will call "the same old Republicans." Jeb Bush is the only GOP name tested in this survey with more than 25% unfavorable responses from the under 30s.

Those are some really ugly numbers there, and it may be time to start moving Colorado up on the list in terms of seats most likely to flip. Barring some significant improvement by Udall with those 30 and over (if these crosstabs truly capture the Colorado landscape), he is going to lose.

Other quick notes... The number one issue cited by respondents was Healthcare. Udall trails by 21 points among those citing that issue as their main one. Second is the economy. Udall trails by 13 points among those... Christie (tied) and Huckabee (down 1) are competitive versus Clinton, whereas old guard Jeb Bush loses by 5.